Steam Neural Recommender: evaluation card

Temporal top-K recommendation on the Kaggle Steam recommendations archive (v28, CC0). Every number below is regenerated from retained run manifests for split 70edc4434b998994; the test split is scored once per final seed and never tuned on.

Two-tower test NDCG@10
0.0279
3 seeds
Two-tower test Recall@10
0.0554
held-out next positive
CPU retrieval p50
15.9 ms
AMD64 Family 25 Model 97 Stepping 2, AuthenticAMD
Recent-popularity test NDCG@10
0.0312
strongest zero-parameter baseline

Preregistered hypotheses

Test split: NDCG@10 by model (mean over seeds, whisker = ±1 std)

0.0000.0080.0160.0230.031Global popularityGlobal popularity: 0.0175 (n=1, std 0.0000)0.0175Recent popularity (90 d)Recent popularity (90 d): 0.0312 (n=1, std 0.0000)0.0312Matrix factorisation (BPR)Matrix factorisation (BPR): 0.0188 (n=3, std 0.0005)0.0188Two-tower retrieverTwo-tower retriever: 0.0279 (n=3, std 0.0006)0.0279Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower)Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower): 0.0279 (n=3, std 0.0006)0.0279

Test split: all headline metrics

ModelSeedsNDCG@10Recall@10Coverage@10Popularity bias@10CPU p50 msParams
Global popularity10.01750.03730.00060.99950.42890
Recent popularity (90 d)10.03120.06350.00030.99780.40960
Matrix factorisation (BPR)30.0188 ± 0.00050.0413 ± 0.00140.0020 ± 0.00020.9994 ± 0.00000.7633 ± 0.0385831,292,024
Two-tower retriever30.0279 ± 0.00060.0554 ± 0.00090.1653 ± 0.00260.9611 ± 0.000815.9381 ± 0.12676,557,184
Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower)30.0279 ± 0.00060.0554 ± 0.00090.1653 ± 0.00260.9611 ± 0.0008n/a6,557,184

Test split: slices

Cold start (Recall@10)

Modelcold_starthas_history
Global popularity0.0938
n=5000
0.0232
n=20000
Recent popularity (90 d)0.0938
n=5000
0.0559
n=20000
Matrix factorisation (BPR)0.0938 ± 0.0000
n=5000
0.0282 ± 0.0017
n=20000
Two-tower retriever0.0938 ± 0.0000
n=5000
0.0459 ± 0.0011
n=20000
Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower)0.0938 ± 0.0000
n=5000
0.0459 ± 0.0011
n=20000

History length (Recall@10)

Modellong_10_plusmedium_3_9short_1_2
Global popularity0.0102
n=3935
0.0219
n=7794
0.0544
n=13271
Recent popularity (90 d)0.0384
n=3935
0.0531
n=7794
0.0771
n=13271
Matrix factorisation (BPR)0.0152 ± 0.0017
n=3935
0.0249 ± 0.0007
n=7794
0.0587 ± 0.0017
n=13271
Two-tower retriever0.0423 ± 0.0011
n=3935
0.0500 ± 0.0019
n=7794
0.0625 ± 0.0003
n=13271
Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower)0.0423 ± 0.0011
n=3935
0.0500 ± 0.0019
n=7794
0.0625 ± 0.0003
n=13271

History polarity (Recall@10)

Modelhas_negativespositive_only
Global popularity0.0189
n=6557
0.0439
n=18443
Recent popularity (90 d)0.0433
n=6557
0.0707
n=18443
Matrix factorisation (BPR)0.0225 ± 0.0010
n=6557
0.0480 ± 0.0015
n=18443
Two-tower retriever0.0389 ± 0.0012
n=6557
0.0613 ± 0.0008
n=18443
Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower)0.0389 ± 0.0012
n=6557
0.0613 ± 0.0008
n=18443

Held-out item popularity (Recall@10)

Modelhead_top10pcttail
Global popularity0.0482
n=19350
0.0000
n=5650
Recent popularity (90 d)0.0821
n=19350
0.0000
n=5650
Matrix factorisation (BPR)0.0534 ± 0.0018
n=19350
0.0000 ± 0.0000
n=5650
Two-tower retriever0.0694 ± 0.0012
n=19350
0.0076 ± 0.0005
n=5650
Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower)0.0694 ± 0.0012
n=19350
0.0076 ± 0.0005
n=5650

Held-out item release cohort (Recall@10)

Modelcatalogue_before_cutoffreleased_after_cutoff
Global popularity0.0477
n=19560
0.0000
n=5440
Recent popularity (90 d)0.0786
n=19560
0.0094
n=5440
Matrix factorisation (BPR)0.0528 ± 0.0018
n=19560
0.0001 ± 0.0001
n=5440
Two-tower retriever0.0700 ± 0.0012
n=19560
0.0031 ± 0.0006
n=5440
Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower)0.0700 ± 0.0012
n=19560
0.0031 ± 0.0006
n=5440

Validation split (hyperparameter selection only)

ModelSeedsNDCG@10Recall@10Coverage@10Popularity bias@10CPU p50 msParams
Global popularity10.01930.04080.00070.99950.42890
Recent popularity (90 d)10.02530.05730.00040.99780.40960
Matrix factorisation (BPR)30.0213 ± 0.00040.0460 ± 0.00110.0026 ± 0.00010.9994 ± 0.00000.7633 ± 0.0385831,292,024
Two-tower retriever30.0367 ± 0.00070.0681 ± 0.00110.1641 ± 0.00250.9584 ± 0.000815.9381 ± 0.12676,557,184
Hybrid (recent popularity below threshold, else two-tower)30.0367 ± 0.00070.0681 ± 0.00110.1641 ± 0.00250.9584 ± 0.0008n/a6,557,184